Interesting thread.
From my perspective, three major forces have been overlooked within the areas of specification, implementation and application. It is, in my belief, going to continue and will further dilute the value of specification and implementation.
The management by consensus model for spec development is failing.
There has not existed a direct financial incentive or cost for success in implementation or failure to implement specification.
Finally, application is driven by market forces.
I can foresee a future wherein browser dependency is reduced solely for static Internet communication and wherein dynamic content (including data management and use) is delivered, managed and controlled by stand-alone RIAs and by the operating systems.
This post is prefaced with the disclaimer that all statements are an obvious over simplification for the purpose of brevity.